March 24, 2008

FINANCIAL AND OIL CRISIS

….where’s all the Iraqi oil profits?

From:  R.F. in Wisconsin –

22 March 2008

Great article Dene. It’s absolutely unbelievable what these lending institutions have done with subprime borrowers. It’s a monumental scam. The system has been tweaked simply to make a few people rich overnight. It’s one big circle of greed. The people who have borrowed money at ridiculously terms to buy homes that they can't afford are also a part of the problem (and most of these borrowers own an equal share of the blame). Nobody forced them into these bad loans (and ignorance of what they were doing is a poor excuse). Many are now crying foul, and that may be true in some cases, but anyone who bellied up to the bar for instruments that most reputable banks won't touch (i.e. interest only loans) are people who want instant gratification. The subprime fiasco encompasses some 6 million American borrowers. That's a relatively small slice of the overall pie. Of course, 6 million subprime borrowers translates to hundreds of billions of dollars in defaulted loans (maybe even a couple trillion) so it’s a huge problem for everyone.

There's just one thing. This is a truly unique situation. We are a globalized society, and the West is the world's biggest consumer (lead, of course, by America). We aren't the Germany of the postwar era, and until the dollar is un-pegged from oil, I believe this house of cards can and will be largely sustained.

KEEPING PETROL TIED TO THE DOLLAR . . .

Too many other growing nations are dependent upon the current globalized trade network for their own survival. Nobody likes it, but there is NO other system to move to. Our government knows this. You are right in that America should be crashing and burning. By all previous economic models, we should be in great danger of disintegrating as a global power. I, however, don't think this will happen. The empire still has other levers it can (and will) pull. It pulled one such lever five years ago shortly after Saddam Hussein un-pegged Iraqi oil from the petrol-dollar. We all know what happened. America has since established a huge military presence with several powerful and permanent forward operating bases in this important region of the world. We have strategically positioned ourselves for what comes next.

Last month, Iran followed Iraq's lead and un-pegged its oil trade from the petrol-dollar to the Iranian oil bourse (this was hardly mentioned in the mainstream media). Nevertheless, it’s a huge story. And now, we hear the familiar drumbeat of war, and we, of all people, know exactly what's on the horizon.

The subprime meltdown will lead to a wider gap between the wealthy and the poor globally (this isn't just a local phenomenon). Check out the world markets, and check out how all citizens of this planet are facing even worse economic situations as a result of our interlinked global economy. Sometimes we don't look outside our own familiar surroundings. The standard of living is diminishing in all countries (truly it’s a much worse situation outside the US).

From:  Dene McGriff to R.F. in Wisconsin and C.F. in Tulsa, OK – 9:42 AM

Hi, R.

I agree.  America won't totally fall apart because we have a major role to play.  The main effect will be the impoverishment of the middle classes as their debt and lack of savings drags them under.  We will maintain as the world power at all costs.  That is my next article, "Deceit of Empire".  We have always been a nice empire - not exacting tribute from anyone as long as they use the dollar and play nice.  But you can't get around the fact that the dollar has lost almost half its value in the past few years and will continue to do so.  I think we will see the rest of the oil producers abandon the dollar and once we see the nations stop supporting the dollar by buying up our debt, we will see further deterioration in our economy.  It has now gone far beyond a "subprime" crisis to a crisis of confidence and what we see is 500 trillion in derivatives beginning to unwind.  No one really knows how great our exposure is but this is causing a major shake up.  I agree America will maintain but maybe not quite in the traditional sense we thought.  You are right.  Geographic borders don't mean much any more.  The global elites transcend all this so what are they up to?

 

WHERE’S THE CASH FROM THE IRAQI OIL – WHO’S GETTING IT?

But if we are going to make this empire thing pay, we may have to take the gloves off and exact our pound of flesh.   My question is, why haven't we done that?  What is happening to Iraqi oil profits?  Are there any?  Who is getting the money (at $100+ a barrel)?  We claim we don't, but is that really true?  C.F., in your research, can you find out what is happening to the oil $$$???  They call Iraq the 3 trillion dollar war.  It doesn't make much sense that we would spend that kind of money unless we got something in return.  What kind of merchants are we anyway?  But there is a lot of $$$/oil sloshing around out there.  Follow the money as they say.  If Iraq is only producing 5 million barrels a day, that's half a billion dollars every day.  Where is all that money going?  How much to Iraq?  How much to reconstruction/contractors/American oil/business?

TAKING ON IRAN

We all know, the "shrub" is crazier than a hoot owl and wants to do Iran in, in the worst way.  Admirals are resigning.  Troops are positioning.  How on earth could we take on a nation that size?  Our military is so over extended we can barely manage Iraq and other commitments.  Some of my best friends are Iranians and there are millions of them here in the US.  If we attacked Iran, can you imagine the fear they could whip up?  This is such a crazy election year; I find it almost hard to believe that it will ever happen but Bush III (McCain) would certainly carry on King George's policies.  Wow!  This is really crazy! 

Anyway, this is going to be one of the most interesting six months we have ever seen.

Sorry about the ramblings.  It's early in the morning and no one is up but me... 

Have a great weekend, guys!  Our hope is that "He is risen indeed!"

Dene

FROM R.F. in Wisconsin -

WHERE HAS ALL THE OIL PROFITS GONE?

I think Dene has made a very important point, and I've sort of wondered about where all the "oil wealth" is going too. I mean, c'mon, it's been 5 years! Oil production went back online quite some time ago. I think "rebuilding Iraq" means a lot of things. I'm sure some of this money is going to infrastructure, but probably the infrastructure that the US needs most to network its interests in the war theater. I'll bet "rebuilding" also means MILITARY BASES. My commentary, however, is speculative. We should try to research this as Dene suggested. I have not seen anything meaningful written on this.

WILL THE MIDDLE CLASS IN AMERICA SURVIVE – I THINK SO?

It is surely possible that the middle class will be wiped out in the period ahead. Still, this is a major section of the population. I have mixed feelings about this. I'm not entirely convinced that the middle class will be wiped out; maybe just winnowed a bit. Perhaps my take on things is a bit skewed. I’m in manufacturing.  I've been watching this situation very closely in so far our possible competition with the Chinese and Indians. It is not easy for Chinese and Indian suppliers to enter our market, and even if they could, they are too heavily burdened supplying units to support their own rapidly growing infrastructures (and this won't change anytime soon). This same story is true for other industries. We know this because we see (and anticipate) strong competition in our global supply chain. Lead times are longer than ever. I'm not suggesting that we (US manufacturers) won't experience a modest slow-down, but there are no indicators (other than the subprime market) showing that things are going to take a dive anytime soon. Business remains strong. I've had similar discussions with friends in other industries. Everyone is super busy.

I think it is possible that the middle class will survive (at least part of it, maybe even a large part of it). These people may be complicit in the crimes that lie ahead. They may willingly go along with the elites. When I read Revelation, this is exactly what I see happening. All of us will make a decision about the mark. If we get to make a decision, it logically follows that we are still plugged into the system (economy).

Just my two cents.

Happy Easter all.

R.F.

R.,

You make a very good point and you are right.  There will always be a certain middle class (even though they are squeezed) in the basic service industries, food production, certain types of manufacturing, etc.  These will rock along because even the elites need to eat, drive and live.  If I think about my friends in Argentina, for example, many had their savings wiped out.  Some lost their houses.  The middle class shrunk but as long as people had education and some skills, they started over and muddled through.

I did some work for Shea Homes here in Sacramento and the foreman was telling me about their housing tract developments in 'Southern California where the houses range from $7 to 10 million and they can't build them fast enough.  I think the trend of the future is seeing the elite, the wealthy, the owners and directors of these corporations getting fabulously wealthy.  R. is right.  There is a trickle down effect and enough will trickle down so people don't starve. 

On the other hand, we have the black horse indicating the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer.  That trend will continue as globalization spreads and world wide wages and prices even out.  Eventually, the system will implode and the mark of the beast will be a nice little offer most people won't be able to refuse.

But, very good observation R..  Most of these trends move so slowly that people hardly notice them - like inflation.  It's like the frog in the pot of water.  These trends have been years in building and taken far longer than anyone expected.

The best bell weather out there is still Israel and what is happening in the Middle East.  We need to keep our eye on that ball.

Hope you all had a great day!!!  Doug and I listened to Geoff's latest CD and it is fabulous!!!

Dene

 

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